Ridiculously Early Best Directing Predictions

Only three times have all the Best Picture nominees been nominated for Best Directing. On the other hand, since the Academy limited the Best Picture category to five nominees in 1944, there have been only five instances when three Best Picture nominees failed to receive nominations for Best Directing – and all occurred between 1954 and 1966 (is it coincidence that the two categories became more tightly intertwined around the time that Andrew Sarris’ “manifesto of the auteur theory” was published?).

So the five nominees for Best Directing this year will most assuredly come from the candidates for Best Picture nominees, and most likely, there will be one or two nominees that don’t match up between the two categories. Rather than re-list all the potential nominees I’m predicting, I’ll assume that my top five in the Best Picture race are going to be the nominees and just predict who will be the odd men out (since Vanity Fair’s hopes have tanked, the directing nominees will all be men, for the 74th time).

Here’s where I think Proof and Closer will swap out, as Mike Nichols is going to get a nomination no matter what. Martin Scorsese and Oliver Stone seem pretty untouchable, unless either of their movies is completely trashed. If there’s enough passion for The Passion to get it into the top five, then it’s hard to imagine Mel Gibson will be ignored, unless his brash persona (and the accusations of anti-Semitism) turned people off too much last February.

If Ray is truly beloved, Taylor Hackford could get his first nomination in this category, however he looks to be the next weakest of the bunch and might very well be pushed out by a director with more style (whose Picture might not be seen as having enough substance).

My first bet would be Walter Salles for The Motorcycle Diaries (as foreign film directors have frequently been nominated when their Pictures were not [directors of foreign language films have been nominated an astounding 26 times by my rough count - including six in five consecutive years in the early 70s - compared to the seven times foreign language films have been nominated for Best Picture], most recently in the last two years with Pedro Almodovar and Fernando Meirelles).

Salles is followed closely by Wes Anderson (who might benefit from the branch that has in the past nominated “quirkier” directors like Stanley Kubrick, David Lynch and Spike Jonze while their Pictures have been ignored). I think that Michael Moore is less likely to get a nomination for Directing than Fahrenheit 9/11 is for Best Picture, as I think that many of its supporters probably like the film more than they like the man (though after rewarding a pedophile-rapist, who knows?).