Ridiculously Early Best Actor Predictions

1. Jamie Foxx, Ray

For him: Already the front-runner; positive reaction to his performance in Collateral may carry over; a nomination for him could be seen as honoring Ray Charles posthumously; if the movie’s a serious Best Picture contender, it’ll bring him along; physical handicaps - always a vote-getter

Against him: Already the front-runner (as with the potential Best Pictures, this can be a blessing and a curse); his performance in Collateral might (not likely, but might) split votes, especially if voters consider it a lead; comics don’t always have an easy time getting respect for dramatic roles (just ask In Living Color castmate Jim Carrey); I still think his performance in the trailer looks a little caricature-y, but I seem to be the only one who thinks so

2. Javier Bardem, The Sea Within

For him: Mostly basing this on David Poland’s assertion that his nomination is virtually guaranteed; I think he deserved to win in 2000 for Before Night Falls, and I can’t be alone; his brief but memorable turn in Collateral can only help; physical handicaps – always a vote-getter

Against him: There’s that pesky non-English thing; the movie he’s in will have to get some traction amidst a competitive batch of foreign-language films; I wrote a few days ago that in August of 2000, nobody knew who Javier Bardem was – but how much has changed in four years?

3. Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland

For him: Everybody loves him; there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting with Kate Winslet (five co-stars nominated in nine years); there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Miramax movie; accents – always a vote getter; after getting nominated for playing a fey pirate in a Jerry Bruckheimer/Disney movie about a theme park ride, what can’t he get nominated for?; was a gracious loser last year, unlike some people…

Against him: Buzz on the film has grown a little tepid – we’ll have to wait until after Venice to see how it (and he) is received

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator

For him: If The Aviator is the awards-behemoth it’s supposed to be, it’ll take him with it; there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Martin Scorsese movie (4 wins plus 12 nominations); there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Miramax movie; there are worse ways to get a nomination than playing Howard Hughes; could be rewarded for consistently foregoing the easy heartthrob route

Against him: The Titanic and Gangs of New York juggernauts didn’t bring him along for the ride, and his Oscar-baiting role in Catch Me if You Can failed to get any bites (to be fair, Gangs and Catch going head to head may have hurt his chances); suffers from Tom Cruise dilemma where people think of him more as a pretty-boy movie star than an actor (forgetting his Oscar-nominated turn in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape), and like Cruise, he tends to get co-stars nominated instead of himself (co-stars like Diane Keaton, Kate Winslet, Gloria Stuart, Daniel Day-Lewis and Christopher Walken)

5. Jude Law, Closer

For him: Is in so many movies this year, the law of averages alone secures him a slot; he’s been on a role, getting two nominations in five years (as well as getting serious attention for A.I. and The Road to Perdition); there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Mike Nichols movie (2 wins plus 13 nominations); being British – always a vote-getter

Against him: Jude Law fatigue may set it, from his ubiquitous presence in both cinemas this fall and the Oscar races of the last five years; potential vote-splitting if he doesn’t clearly campaign for one film; his role in Closer isn’t nearly as showy as some of his co-stars; Nichols hasn't gotten a male nominated for an Academy Award since The Graduate

[Side note – It wasn’t intentional, but by arranging these actors in this order, I created a sort of Six Degrees of Separation – Jamie Foxx was in Collateral with Javier Bardem who was in Before Night Falls with Johnny Depp who was in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape with Leonardo DiCaprio who is in The Aviator with… Jude Law!]

The rest of these actors all have some modicum of buzz around them, though for various reasons, I can’t see putting them in the top five right now:

6. Colin Farrell, Alexander
7. Liam Neeson, Kinsey
8. Bill Murray, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou
9. Gael Garcia Bernal, The Motorcycle Diaries
10. Tom Cruise, Collateral
11. Jim Caviezel, The Passion of The Christ
12. Paul Giamatti, Sideways
13. Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor
14. Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
15. Christopher Walken, Around the Bend
16. Kevin Bacon, The Woodsman