Last Minute Golden Globe Predictions

With only a few hours left until nominations are announced, I really have no grasp on what and who to predict this year. For the most part, I guess I'm just ripping off Tom O'Neil and Kris at Oscar Watch, who have nearly identical picks. Any deviations I'm making are totally "out on a limb" longshots.

Before I get to "my" predictions, a few things to keep in mind when attempting to play psychic with the Globes.

Of course the number one rule is that they love celebrities, even more than your average awards show, which is why big box-office stars and magazine cover girls/boys tend to do quite well there (however, from time to time, they do pick unknowns in little movies (like Evan Rachel Wood, Ken Watanabe, Peter Sarsgaard, Hope Davis, Maria Bello, Kieran Culkin, Hayden Christensen, John Cameron Mitchell, Javier Bardem, Tilda Swinton, Chloe Sevigny, Samantha Morton, Richard Farnsworth, Stephen Fry, Fernanda Montenegro, Cate Blanchett, Djimon Hounsou, Emily Watson, Brenda Blethyn, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Geoffrey Rush, Colm Meaney, etc....).

In both the Best Picture categories, as well as in the acting categories, they think much more globally than the Academy does (even though their rules forbid foreign-language films from competing for Best Picture). Thus the following list of European and Australian films made the cut with the Globes over the last 13 years, but not with the Academy (and not all of them in the Musical/Comedy ghetto, either - I've bolded the Drama nominees): Bend it Like Beckham, Love, Actually, About a Boy, Nicholas Nickleby, Bridget Jones’s Diary, Billy Elliot, Sunshine, Chicken Run, The End of the Affair, Notting Hill, Still Crazy, The Boxer, Breaking the Waves, The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, Much Ado About Nothing, Strictly Ballroom, Enchanted April, The Commitments.

So it's likely there'll be at least one of these going-nowhere nominees this year. In the Drama category, the most likely seems to be Vera Drake (I'm not sure if Finding Neverland, Hotel Rwanda or Closer count as foreign since they have American stars). In the Musical/Comedy category, we can usually count on the good people at Working Title (you may know them from the trailers that proclaim that you may know them from producing Four Weddings and A Funeral, Notting Hill, Bridget Jones's Diary and Love, Actually -- Golden Globe Best Picture nominees all). But this year, neither Wimbledon or Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason seem too likely. And I can't think of any other films that qualify as this year's Four Weddings or Full Monty. Which makes me think that Vera Drake might just squeeze her bottom into one of the five/six/seven Best Picture slots.

That's the other thing about The Golden Globes - They frequently pad their categories with more than five nominations. So to be fair, I'm going to include two back-ups just in case (and because I'm feeling really indecisive at this hour).

My predictions, in descending order of likelihood:

Best Picture - Drama
1. The Aviator
2. Million Dollar Baby
3. Finding Neverland
4. Hotel Rwanda
5. Closer

6. Vera Drake
7. Kinsey

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy
1. The Phantom of the Opera
2. Sideways
3. Ray
4. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
5. The Incredibles

6. Spanglish
7. Beyond the Sea

Best Director
1. Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
2. Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
3. Mike Nichols, Closer
4. Mel Gibson, The Passion of The Christ
5. Joel Schumacher, The Phantom of the Opera

6. Michael Mann, Collateral
7. Alexander Payne, Sideways

Best Actor - Drama
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
2. Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
3. Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
4. Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
5. John Travolta, A Love Song for Bobby Long

6. Liam Neeson, Kinsey
7. Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor

8. Kevin Bacon, The Woodsman
9. Tom Cruise, Collateral
10. Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
11. Jude Law, Closer

Best Actress - Drama
1. Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2. Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
3. Julia Roberts, Closer
4. Julie Delpy, Before Sunset
5. Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace

6. Kim Bassinger, The Door in the Floor
7. Laura Dern, We Don't Live Here Anymore

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
1. Annette Bening, Being Julia
2. Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
3. Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera
4. Paz Vega, Spanglish
5. Tea Leoni, Spanglish

6. Lindsay Lohan, Mean Girls
7. Jennifer Garner, 13 Going on 30

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy
1. Jamie Foxx, Ray
2. Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
3. Paul Giamatti, Sideways
4. Kevin Spacey, Beyond the Sea
5. Bill Murray, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

6. Gerard Butler, The Phantom of the Opera
7. Adam Sandler, Spanglish

Best Supporting Actor
1. Clive Owen, Closer
2. Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
3. Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
4. Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
5. Jamie Foxx, Collateral

6. Alan Alda, The Aviator
7. John Lithgow, Kinsey

Best Supporting Actress
1. Natalie Portman, Closer
2. Virginia Madsen, Sideways
3. Laura Linney, Kinsey
4. Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
5. Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda

6. Barbara Streisand, Meet the Fockers
7. Cloris Leachman, Spanglish

8. Julie Christie, Finding Neverland
9. Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate
10. Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
11. Regina King, Ray

Best Screenplay
1. Sideways
2. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
3. Kinsey
4. Million Dollar Baby
5. The Aviator

6. Spanglish
7. Hotel Rwanda

When it comes to the Music and Foreign Film categories, I have even less of a clue. The only thing I'll be paying attention to is whether or not Team America scores any noms for Best Song.

Only two hours to go...