Ridiculously Early Best Supporting Actress Predictions

1. Natalie Portman, Closer

For Her: Her most adult role yet will be an eye-opener; residual goodwill towards Garden State - as well as appreciation for the range exhibited in the two distinct performances - should give her a boost; even people who didn’t like Cold Mountain were impressed with her too-small-to-nominate turn; there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Mike Nichols film (he’s directed seven women to Best Supporting Actress nominations); more than holds her own with some pretty hefty “elder statesmen and stateswoman”; the Academy (and this category in particular) likes them young… and pretty – in Portman they get a 23-year-old starlet who also has ten years of critically-acclaimed performances on stage and screen under her belt [a combination that helped another brainy-and-talented-beyond-her-years actress with an ethnically-cleansed surname pick up her first nomination in this category about a decade ago for her all-grown-up-now performance in a renowned director’s film]

Against Her: Possible media focus on the more salacious aspects of her performance may overshadow the performance itself; if Garden State is popular enough, could split some votes; residual antipathy towards the Star Wars prequels could give some voters pause

2. Laura Linney, Kinsey

For Her: I get the sense that the Academy has wanted to nominate her again since You Can Count on Me… she just hasn’t the right role; early word coming out of Toronto is very positive; she gets uglied up, which worked well for Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman and Halle Berry; showed range with Emmy-winning comedic role on Frasier

Against Her: If P.S. catches on, it could split votes; Kinsey role may be considered a lead

3. Cloris Leachman, Spanglish

For Her: Hollywood can’t stop rewarding her; with an Emmy nomination in each of the last four years (including one win); there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a James L. Brooks film (ten nominations from just three movies), and she’s Spanglish’s most pedigreed performer; when this category isn’t honoring pretty young things, it likes to throw a token bone to a veteran having fun (Helen Mirren (Gosford Park and The Madness of King George), Maggie Smith, Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love and Chocolat), Julie Walters, Lynn Redgrave, Gloria Stuart, Lauren Bacall, Dianne Wiest, Rosemary Harris, Vanessa Redgrave and Joan Plowwright – obviously it helps to be British, but it’s not a prerequisite)

Against Her: Nobody’s ever been nominated for an Oscar playing opposite Adam Sandler

4. Hope Davis, Proof

For Her: Has been building awards buzz the last two years with About Schmidt, The Secret Lives of Dentists and American Splendor – picking up several honors for the latter two roles; this role earned Johanna Day a Tony nomination in 2001

Against Her: As with Paltrow and Hopkins, Davis’ chances could suffer if the film and her performance are deemed too stagey; apparently, she played the French Ticket Agent in Home Alone (on second thought, put that in the For Her column)

5. Jodie Foster, A Very Long Engagement

For Her: The Academy loves her, but she hasn’t been nominated since Nell in 1994; manages to generate Oscar talk even for her work in genre movies like Contact and Panic Room, so imagine what she can do in a bona fide art film; American actors don’t often do foreign language performances, but when they do, they’re handsomely rewarded (Robert De Niro, Benicio Del Toro); when the winners of Lead Actress Oscars “slum” in Supporting roles, they get noticed (Holly Hunter, Meryl Streep, Kathy Bates, Frances McDormand, Emma Thompson, Jessica Tandy)

Against Her: I can’t think of any precedent for an American actor tackling a significant role in a foreign film, so I have nothing to measure her odds against – though this sheer uniqueness may work in her favor; when I first heard about Foster signing for this film, it sounded like it would be a glorified cameo – not sure if it’s a meaty enough part

As you can tell by the sheer number of runners-up I have listed below, this is the category I’m currently least sure about. There could be some big surprises emerging here. Notice, I tied the two actresses from Ray and the two actresses from Alexander because it’s not clear yet which one in either pair has the showier part.

6. Lauren Bacall, Birth
7. Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
8. Julie Christie, Finding Neverland
9. Scarlett Johansson, Synergy
10. Regina King, Ray
10. Kerry Washington, Ray
12. Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate
12. Gena Rowlands, The Notebook
13. Laura Dern, We Don’t Live Here Anymore
14. Virginia Madsen, Sideways
15. Aileen Atkins, Vanity Fair
16. Angelina Jolie, Alexander
16. Rosario Dawson, Alexander
17. Irma P. Hall, The Ladykillers
18. Lynn Redgrave, Kinsey
19. Marcia Gay Harden, P.S.
20. Lily Tomlin, I [Heart] Huckabee's