Ridiculously Early Best Supporting Actor Predictions

1. Clive Owen, Closer

For Him: It’s a great, charismatic role with some powerful scenes, both comedic and dramatic; could be an opportunity for long overdue payback for his ineligible, but critically adored performance in Croupier four years ago; has a lot of screen time for a supporting role; there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Mike Nichols film; being British – always a vote-getter

Against Him: Has been considered the “Next Big Thing” for a long time, and yet up until this movie, those BMW ads were the most impressive thing he’d done since Croupier – his moment may have passed before it ever really arrived (the Gretchen Mol effect); Nichols hasn’t gotten anyone nominated in this category since George Segal in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf; could suffer backlash from the abysmally-received King Arthur

2. Anthony Hopkins, Proof

For Him: He’s Sir Anthony Hopkins; an Academy favorite who hasn’t been nominated since Amistad in 1997; this role earned Larry Brygmann a Tony nomination in 2001; seems like he’s abandoned the sell-out phase of his career; could get a boost from his turn in Alexander; mental illness – always a vote-getter; dying on-screen – always a vote-getter; being British – always a vote-getter

Against Him: May be campaigned as a lead; performance in Alexander could split votes; co-star Jake Gyllenhaal (who’s also inherited a Tony-nominated role) may siphon off some votes

3. Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey

For Him: Consolation prize for not being nominated last year for Shattered Glass; early reviews are strong for his Kinsey performance; residual goodwill felt towards Garden State could give him a boost

Against Him: If Kinsey follows the Gods and Monsters pattern too closely, he could get stuck with the Brendan Fraser booby prize; is it just me, or was his solid performance in Shattered Glass highly overrated?

4. Willem Dafoe, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

For Him: Looks to be the scene-stealer and emotional heart of this impressive cast; performances in The Clearing and The Aviator could give him a boost; in the wake of The Passion, a lot of people were talking about his turn at playing Christ in a favorable light; accents – always a vote-getter

Against Him: Despite some pre-Oscar recognition for Bill Murray and Gene Hackman, Wes Anderson has yet to get an actor nominated for an Academy Award; in the wake of Spider-Man 2, a lot of people may have been talking about his turn at playing the Green Goblin in a less-than-favorable light

5. Dustin Hoffman, I [Heart] Huckabee’s

For Him: He’s Dustin Hoffman; an Academy favorite who hasn’t been nominated since Wag the Dog in 1997; could get a boost from his turn in Finding Neverland

Against Him: Movie (and his performance) may wind up being too zany to be taken seriously; if role in Finding Neverland is bigger than initially reported, it could either split votes or replace this performance as the one most likely to be nominated

In what’s usually a very competitive category, this year’s crop of potentials looks to be fairly weak. Expect some surprises to sift to the top by December.

6. Kevin Costner, The Upside of Anger
7. Rodrigo de la Serna, The Motorcycle Diaries
8. David Carradine, Kill Bill, Vol. 2
9. Topher Grace, Synergy
10. Morgan Freeman, An Unfinished Life
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Proof
12. Jamie Foxx, Collateral
13. Jeremy Irons, Being Julia
14. Chris Cooper, Silver City