Ridiculously Early Best Actress Predictions

1. Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof

For Her: Had to act out losing her father so soon after doing it in real life – that’s gotta be good for a few tears (and votes); last time she worked with John Madden, she won an Oscar; this role won Mary Louise-Parker a Tony in 2001; there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting with Anthony Hopkins (who has helped co-stars to seven nominations plus three wins – all for leading actresses); if Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow is a hit, it could help; she looks pretty in a dress – always a vote-getter

Against Her: Some felt that her Shakespeare in Love role was too fluffy to warrant her winning an Oscar and may hold that against her now (though that didn’t stop Marisa Tomei from getting a nom in 2001); had a depressing awards season last year with Sylvia; might be hurt if movie (and her performance) are too stagey; refuses to walk red carpet with her hubby; named her daughter Apple

2. Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

For Her: The Academy loves her, yet they’ve never given her any gold so now’s another chance; accents – always a vote-getter (though the generic American accent may not qualify as such, flawless though it may be); could get a boost if performance in Finding Neverland is warmly regarded; critics adore this performance and a Comedy/Musical Golden Globe nomination is in the bag; the most likely chance to recognize this well-liked film (outside of Best Original Screenplay)

Against Her: Finding Neverland performance may split votes (especially if it’s campaigned as a lead and not supporting); Eternal Sunshine may have dimmed in voters’ memories since March – Focus will need to aggressively campaign and use the DVD release to reverse the memory erasure

3. Annette Bening, Being Julia

For Her: Buzz is good and a lot of Oscar predictors have her as a lock; many felt she deserved the award for American Beauty (she even won the SAG) – this could be payback; can count on husband to campaign for her and be arm candy

Against Her: The movie doesn’t sound like it’s going to be the blockbuster awards juggernaut that American Beauty was- she’ll have to depend on buzz (and critics’ awards) for her performance to get people to even put the screeners in their DVD players

4. Julia Roberts, Closer

For Her: Being Julia; there are worse ways to get a nomination than acting in a Mike Nichols movie (who’s directed his actresses to 12 total nominations over the years, including five in the lead category); may be rewarded for making a risky departure with this role that could potentially turn off some of her core fans (like Tom Cruise in Magnolia); for the first time in a long time, actually got a part after somebody else passed - which shows surprising humility; could get a boost if she gets to flash her smile in Ocean’s Twelve; chance of her going into labor at the ceremony could be too much to resist (see Catherine Zeta-Jones in 2002 and Annette Bening in 1999)

Against Her: She’s already got so much – does she really need twin Oscars, too?; may not have as much screen time as some of her competitors; as with Jude Law, her role isn’t as showy as her co-stars; her diva-esque acceptance speech for Erin Brockovich may have left a bad taste in voters’ mouths; if she gives birth before ballots are due, media hype could cause Julia-fatigue

5. Catalina Sandino Mareno, Maria Full of Grace

For Her: Universal critical acclaim for a harrowing performance; could be this year’s Keisha Castle-Hughes shocker; has already started gathering festival awards; Oscar likes them young… and pretty

Against Her: There’s that pesky non-English thing; with a mid-summer release date and a mere $4 million in box-office, it’ll be an uphill battle to make sure she’s seen and remembered, and New Line may be too focused on The Sea Within to do the heavy-lifting necessary – she’ll have to get some year-end critics’ awards and make the rounds in Hollywood to be this year’s Keisha

The barbarians at the gate:

6. Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
7. Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
8. Nicole Kidman, Birth
9. Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement
10. Rachel McAdams, The Notebook
11. Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2
12. Julie Delpy, Before Sunset
13. Tea Leoni, Spanglish
14. Halle Berry, Catwoman