Trojan Horse

There may be no less accurate an Oscar precursor than the USC Scripter Award in recognition of the “Best Realization of a Book Adapted to Film.” Dare I say, it’s even something of a jinx – like the Best New Artist award at the Grammys.

Of the seventeen movies that had won as of last year, only four went on to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Even fewer (only three – A Beautiful Mind, The English Patient and Schindler’s List) picked up Best Picture Awards from the Academy.

Granted, three of the winners of Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars (Traffic, Sling Blade and Driving Miss Daisy) were ineligible for the Scripter Award (because they weren’t based on books), but still, those are not good odds. Even perennial punching bag The National Board of Review has got a better track record of picking the Best Picture winner.

That’s not a good omen for this year’s winner – Million Dollar Baby – in either the tight Best Adapted Screenplay race or the tight Best Picture race. Like Kanye West, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor should be breathing sighs of relief that they lost.