The Oscar Grouch

Grumbling about the Awards I love to hate and hate to love.

Sunday, March 05, 2006

The Oscar Grouch's 2006 Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Crash
Dark Horse: Munich
Who I'm Rooting For: Munich

Best Directing

Will Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Steven Spielberg, Munich
Dark Horse: Paul Haggis, Crash
Who I'm Rooting For: Steven Spielberg, Munich

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Potential Spoiler: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Who I'm Rooting For: A four-way tie between Hoffman, Howard, Phoenix and Strathairn

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Potential Spoiler: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Dark Horse: Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Who I'm Rooting For: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: George Clooney, Syriana
Potential Spoiler: Matt Dillon, Crash
Dark Horse: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Who I'm Rooting For: George Clooney, Syriana

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Potential Spoiler: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Dark Horse: Amy Adams, Junebug
Who I'm Rooting For: Frances McDormand, North Country

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Dan Futterman, Capote
Dark Horse: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich
Who I'm Rooting For: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Crash
Potential Spoiler: George Clooney & Grant Heslove, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Dark Horse: Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Who I'm Rooting For: Woody Allen, Match Point

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Potential Spoiler: Howl's Moving Castle
Dark Horse: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Who I'm Rooting For: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride (I haven't seen Howl's Moving Castle yet)

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Paradise Now
Potential Spoiler: Tsotsi
Dark Horse: Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Who I'm Rooting For: Tsotsi (I haven't seen Don't Tell or Joyeux Noël yet)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: March of the Penguins
Potential Spoiler: Murderball
Dark Horse: Street Fight
Who I'm Rooting For: Murderball (followed very closely by Street Fight)

Best Art Direction
Will Win: John Myhre (art direction) and Gretchen Rau (set decoration), Memoirs of a Geisha
Potential Spoiler: Grant Major (art) and Dan Hennah and Simon Bright (set), King Kong
Dark Horse: Jim Bissell (art) and Jan Pascale (set), Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who I'm Rooting For: Grant Major and Dan Hennah and Simon Bright, King Kong

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Dion Beebe, Memoirs of a Geisha
Dark Horse: Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who I'm Rooting For: Emmanuel Lubezki, The New World

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha
Potential Spoiler: Sandy Powell, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Dark Horse: Jacqueline Durran, Pride & Prejudice
Who I'm Rooting For: Gabriella Pescucci, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Best Editing
Will Win: Hughes Winborne, Crash
Potential Spoiler: Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener
Dark Horse: Michael Kahn, Munich
Who I'm Rooting For: Michael Kahn, Munich

Best Makeup
Will Win: Howard Berger and Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Potential Spoiler: Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Dark Horse: Not gonna happen
Who I'm Rooting For: Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Best Original Score
Will Win: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha
Dark Horse: Dario Marianelli, Pride & Prejudice
Who I'm Rooting For: John Williams, Munich

Best Original Song
Will Win: "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica, Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton
Potential Spoiler: "In the Deep" from Crash, Music by Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker, Lyric by Kathleen "Bird" York
Dark Horse: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow, Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard
Who I'm Rooting For: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" though I really like "Travelin' Thru" too

Best Sound
Will Win: Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland, Walk the Line
Potential Spoiler: Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek, King Kong
Dark Horse: Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins, War of the Worlds
Who I'm Rooting For: Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins, War of the Worlds

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong
Potential Spoiler: Richard King, War of the Worlds
Dark Horse: Wylie Stateman, Memoirs of a Geisha
Who I'm Rooting For: Richard King, War of the Worlds

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor, King Kong
Potential Spoiler: Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Dark Horse: Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randal M. Dutra and Daniel Sudick, War of the Worlds
Who I'm Rooting For: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor, King Kong

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
Potential Spoiler: One Man Band
Dark Horse: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
Who I'm Rooting For: One Man Band

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Six Shooter
Potential Spoiler: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Dark Horse: The Last Farm
Who I'm Rooting For: A tie between Cashback and Six Shooter

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Potential Spoiler: The Mushroom Club
Dark Horse: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
Who I'm Rooting For: God Sleeps in Rwanda

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