The Oscar Grouch's 2006 Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Crash
Dark Horse: Munich
Who I'm Rooting For: Munich

Best Directing
Will Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Steven Spielberg, Munich
Dark Horse: Paul Haggis, Crash
Who I'm Rooting For: Steven Spielberg, Munich

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Potential Spoiler: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Who I'm Rooting For: A four-way tie between Hoffman, Howard, Phoenix and Strathairn

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Potential Spoiler: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Dark Horse: Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Who I'm Rooting For: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: George Clooney, Syriana
Potential Spoiler: Matt Dillon, Crash
Dark Horse: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Who I'm Rooting For: George Clooney, Syriana

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Potential Spoiler: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Dark Horse: Amy Adams, Junebug
Who I'm Rooting For: Frances McDormand, North Country

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Dan Futterman, Capote
Dark Horse: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich
Who I'm Rooting For: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Crash
Potential Spoiler: George Clooney & Grant Heslove, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Dark Horse: Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Who I'm Rooting For: Woody Allen, Match Point

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Potential Spoiler: Howl's Moving Castle
Dark Horse: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Who I'm Rooting For: Tim Burton's Corpse Bride (I haven't seen Howl's Moving Castle yet)

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Paradise Now
Potential Spoiler: Tsotsi
Dark Horse: Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Who I'm Rooting For: Tsotsi (I haven't seen Don't Tell or Joyeux Noël yet)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: March of the Penguins
Potential Spoiler: Murderball
Dark Horse: Street Fight
Who I'm Rooting For: Murderball (followed very closely by Street Fight)

Best Art Direction
Will Win: John Myhre (art direction) and Gretchen Rau (set decoration), Memoirs of a Geisha
Potential Spoiler: Grant Major (art) and Dan Hennah and Simon Bright (set), King Kong
Dark Horse: Jim Bissell (art) and Jan Pascale (set), Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who I'm Rooting For: Grant Major and Dan Hennah and Simon Bright, King Kong

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: Dion Beebe, Memoirs of a Geisha
Dark Horse: Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who I'm Rooting For: Emmanuel Lubezki, The New World

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha
Potential Spoiler: Sandy Powell, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Dark Horse: Jacqueline Durran, Pride & Prejudice
Who I'm Rooting For: Gabriella Pescucci, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Best Editing
Will Win: Hughes Winborne, Crash
Potential Spoiler: Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener
Dark Horse: Michael Kahn, Munich
Who I'm Rooting For: Michael Kahn, Munich

Best Makeup
Will Win: Howard Berger and Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Potential Spoiler: Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Dark Horse: Not gonna happen
Who I'm Rooting For: Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Best Original Score
Will Win: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain
Potential Spoiler: John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha
Dark Horse: Dario Marianelli, Pride & Prejudice
Who I'm Rooting For: John Williams, Munich

Best Original Song
Will Win: "Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica, Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton
Potential Spoiler: "In the Deep" from Crash, Music by Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker, Lyric by Kathleen "Bird" York
Dark Horse: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow, Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard
Who I'm Rooting For: "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" though I really like "Travelin' Thru" too

Best Sound
Will Win: Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland, Walk the Line
Potential Spoiler: Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek, King Kong
Dark Horse: Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins, War of the Worlds
Who I'm Rooting For: Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins, War of the Worlds

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong
Potential Spoiler: Richard King, War of the Worlds
Dark Horse: Wylie Stateman, Memoirs of a Geisha
Who I'm Rooting For: Richard King, War of the Worlds

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor, King Kong
Potential Spoiler: Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Dark Horse: Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randal M. Dutra and Daniel Sudick, War of the Worlds
Who I'm Rooting For: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor, King Kong

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
Potential Spoiler: One Man Band
Dark Horse: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
Who I'm Rooting For: One Man Band

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Six Shooter
Potential Spoiler: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Dark Horse: The Last Farm
Who I'm Rooting For: A tie between Cashback and Six Shooter

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Potential Spoiler: The Mushroom Club
Dark Horse: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
Who I'm Rooting For: God Sleeps in Rwanda

Other Immediate Reactions

Biggest Surprises:

• Brokeback Mountain shut out of Best Editing.
• Only three nominees for Best Song? Is this a reaction to last year's truly awful collection of songs (quite possibly the worst in Academy history)? It's unfortunate timing, because I actually had trouble narrowing my selections down to five this year.
• The Academy actually went for a song called "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp!"
  
• Memoirs of a Geisha? Best Sound Editing?
• Revenge of the Sith shut out of Sound and Visual Effects categories. The first Star Wars film to go unrecognized for its visual effects.

And that's about it for the shockers. I wasn't betting on William Hurt to pull through, but enough people had talked about him for it to be less-than-shocking. I also thought the classification screw-up would keep Syriana from picking up a screenplay nomination, but nope.

At first glance, this seems like a rehash of 1999 when American Beauty also led with a relatively paltry 8 nominations.

This is the first time since 1981 (and only the fourth time in history) that all five Best Picture nominees were nominated for Best Director.

First time since the Best Animated Feature category was introduced that not a single CGI movie was nominated. Corpse Bride and Wallace & Gromit are the first two stop-motion features nominated.

Munich still has an uphill battle ahead if it hopes to win the big one. Only ten films in history have won Best Picture without a single acting nomination.

Roadblock on the Mountain?

As I pointed out last year, no movie has won Best Picture without an Editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1980. What does that mean for Brokeback Mountain's frontrunner status?

Last Minute Nomination Predictions

My fearless predictions (ranked in order of likelihood):

Best Picture
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Crash
3. Good Night, and Good Luck
4. Munich
5. Capote

Best Director
1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
2. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Steven Spielberg, Munich
4. Bennett Miller, Capote
5. Fernando Meirelies, The Constant Gardener

Best Actor
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
3. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
4. David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
5. Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

Best Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2. Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
3. Charlize Theron, North Country
4. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
5. Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger

Best Supporting Actor
1. Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
2. Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
3. George Clooney, Syriana
4. Matt Dillon, Crash
5. Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Best Supporting Actress
1. Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
2. Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
3. Amy Adams, Junebug
4. Catherine Keener, Capote
5. Frances McDormand, North Country

Best Original Screenplay
1. Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
2. George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
4. Woody Allen, Match Point
5. Steve Carell and Judd Apatow, The 40 Year Old Virgin

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
2. Dan Futterman, Capote
3. Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich
4. Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
5. Josh Olsen, A History of Violence

Best Animated Feature
1. Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
2. Madagascar
3. Corpse Bride

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Paradise Now
2. Tsotsi
3. Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
4. Joyeux Noël
5. Sorstalanság

Best Documentary Feature
1. March of the Penguins
2. Murderball
3. Street Fight
4. Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
5. Mad Hot Ballroom

Best Art Direction
1. John Myhre, Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Grant Major, King Kong
3. Alex McDowell, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
4. Arthur Max, Kingdom of Heaven
5. Nick Gottschalk and Mark Swain, Pride & Prejudice

Best Visual Effects
1. King Kong
2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

Best Costume Design
1. Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha
2. Terry Ryan, King Kong
3. Jacqueline Durran, Pride & Prejudice
4. Gabriella Pescucci, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
5. Janty Yates, Kingdom of Heaven

Best Makeup
1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
3. A History of Violence

Best Editing
1. Geraldine Peroni & Dylan Tichenor, Brokeback Mountain
2. Hughes Winborne, Crash
3. Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener
4. Michael Kahn, Munich
5. Tim Squyres, Syriana

Best Cinematography
1. Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain
2. Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Dion Beebe, Memoirs of a Geisha
4. Emmanuel Lubezki, The New World
5. Janusz Kaminski, Munich

Best Sound
1. King Kong
2. Walk the Line
3. War of the Worlds
4. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
5. Munich

Best Sound Editing
1. King Kong
2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
3. War of the Worlds

Best Original Score
1. Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain
2. John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha
3. Harry Gregson-Williams, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
4. James Newton Howard, King Kong
5. Thomas Newton, Cinderella Man

Best Original Song
1. “A Love That Will Never Grow Old,” Brokeback Mountain
2. “Travelin' Thru," Transamerica
3. “Wunderkind," The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
4. “Hustle & Flow,” Hustle & Flow
5. “In the Deep," Crash

Torontoing the Line

Well, it worked for Ray (if only Johnny Cash could die again, they'd have this in the bag).

Hollywood Reporter: "Lesser" of two evils?

Uh, I think the folks at The Hollywood Reporter kinda missed the point in their assessment of these guilds' complaints:

The board of directors of American Cinema Editor and the executive director of the Visual Effects Society objected to the way Oscars were presented in some of the lesser categories this year.

Genius Loves Company

I don't know why it's taken me until now, but I've stumbled across a connective tissue between all of this year's Best Picture nominees: Genius. Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere already, but I've suddenly realized that all five films deal with individuals striving for the extraordinary in their respective arts (no wonder The Academy tapped them), be it boxing, aviation, writing, music or writing again. These films are about what it takes to reach the level of genius (determination, vision, raw innate talent and inspiration - I'm leaving Sideways off because it's the one movie where the artists (Miles and Jack) fall short of greatness... and that's okay too) as well as the sad and lonely price these people have to pay for achieving it. These geniuses are isolated by their excellence (again, Sideways is the exception, where as Miles starts to accept his lack of greatness he's able to let Maya in).

If the five Best Picture nominees in a given year are somehow representative of a zeitgeist in motion pictures, then this theme can surely be seen in other notable films of 2004. Perhaps no three films addressed it more directly (sometimes through metaphor) than the "superhero" trinity of The Incredibles, Spider-Man 2 and Team America: World Police. In all three cases, the greatness was innate in the characters, so what they really focused on was the struggle between the desire to fit in and be average in this P.C. society (even if that means ignoring your God-/radiated spider-given gifts) and the responsibility an extraordinary person has to share their gifts with the world (with great power comes great responsibility).

And if movies are a reflection of the times we live in, both The Incredibles (obliquely and unintentionally, since it was written many years ago) and Team America (blatantly and very intentionally as it was written weeks before it was released) tied this dillema into America's place in the world at the moment as well as one of the fundamental questions at the heart of this year's electoral divide: When is it necessary to exercise our country's force?

The two biggest lightning rods of the year in cinema expressed a diametrically opposing view from The Incredibles, Team America and Spider-Man 2. Both The Passion of the Christ and Fahrenheit 9/11 preached a form of "With great power comes the need for great restraint" (I know that may not be the main point of The Passion, and perhaps I'm oversimplifying, but I seem to remember something about how Jesus had the power to get off that cross if he had wanted to yet chose not to use it).

Now I've gotten a little off track, and I'm probably stretching to tie all of this year's films to the theme of Greatness (comma the pursuit of, the burden of and the lack thereof). Though if I wanted to, I could extend this discussion to Kill Bill, Vol. 2, Collateral, Troy, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, Metallica: Some Kind of Monster, Spanglish, Bad Education, The Assasination of Richard Nixon, Baadasssss!, Being Julia and of course that epitome of Greatness - Alexander (the man, not the movie).

Just something for you to think about during the Best Original Song performances.

The Oscar Grouch's 2005 Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture
Will Win: The Aviator
Potential Spoiler: Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse: Sideways
Who I’m Rooting For: Uh, I guess Sideways. Or Million Dollar Baby. Or The Aviator.

Best Directing
Will Win: Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Potential Spoiler: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse: Alexander Payne, Sideways
Who I’m Rooting For: Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jamie Foxx, Ray
Potential Spoiler: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Who I’m Rooting For: Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Potential Spoiler: Annette Bening, Being Julia
Dark Horse: Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Who I’m Rooting For: Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Potential Spoiler: Clive Owen, Closer
Dark Horse: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Who I’m Rooting For: Clive Owen, Closer

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Potential Spoiler: Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Dark Horse: Natalie Portman, Closer
Who I’m Rooting For: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, Sideways
Potential Spoiler: Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse: David Magee, Finding Neverland
Who I’m Rooting For: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, Sideways

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Potential Spoiler: Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Dark Horse: Keir Pearson & Terry George, Hotel Rwanda
Who I’m Rooting For: Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: The Incredibles
Potential Spoiler: Shrek 2
Dark Horse: A write-in win for The Polar Express
Who I’m Rooting For: Shrek 2

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: The Sea Inside
Potential Spoiler: Downfall
Dark Horse: The Chorus
Who I’m Rooting For: The Sea Inside (of the two I’ve seen)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Born into Brothels
Potential Spoiler: Super Size Me
Dark Horse: Twist of Faith
Who I’m Rooting For: Born into Brothels (of the two I’ve seen)

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Rick Heinrichs (art direction) and Cheryl Carasik (set decoration), Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
Potential Spoiler: Dante Ferretti (art) and Francesca Lo Schiavo (set), The Aviator
Dark Horse: Aline Bonetto, A Very Long Engagement
Who I’m Rooting For: Aline Bonetto, A Very Long Engagement

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Robert Richardson, The Aviator
Potential Spoiler: Caleb Deschanel, The Passion of The Christ
Dark Horse: Bruno Delbonnel, A Very Long Engagement
Who I’m Rooting For: Bruno Delbonnel, A Very Long Engagement

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Sandy Powell, The Aviator
Potential Spoiler: Bob Ringwood, Troy
Dark Horse: Colleen Atwood, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
Who I’m Rooting For: Colleen Atwood, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

Best Editing
Will Win: Thelma Schoonmaker, The Aviator
Potential Spoiler: Joel Cox, Million Dollar Baby
Dark Horse: Paul Hirsch, Ray
Who I’m Rooting For: Jim Miller and Paul Rubell, Collateral

Best Makeup
Will Win: Valli O’Reilly and Bill Corso, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
Potential Spoiler: Keith Vanderlaan and Christien Tinsley, The Passion of The Christ
Dark Horse: Jo Allen and Manuel Garcia, The Sea Inside
Who I’m Rooting For: Valli O’Reilly and Bill Corso, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

Best Original Score
Will Win: Jan A.P. Kaczmarek, Finding Neverland
Potential Spoiler: John Debney, The Passion of The Christ
Dark Horse: John Williams, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Who I’m Rooting For: John Williams, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

Best Original Song
Will Win: “Believe” from The Polar Express, Music and Lyric by Glen Ballard and Alan Silvestri
Potential Spoiler: “Learn To Be Lonely” from The Phantom of the Opera, Music by Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyric by Charles Hart
Dark Horse: “Look to Your Path” from The Chorus, Music by Bruno Coulais, Lyric by Christophe Barratier
Who I’m Rooting For: Write-in votes for anything from Team America: World Police

Best Sound
Will Win: Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Joseph Geisinger, Spider-Man 2
Potential Spoiler: Tom Fleischman and Petur Hliddal, The Aviator
Dark Horse: Scott Millan, Greg Orloff, Bob Beemer and Steve Cantamessa, Ray
Who I’m Rooting For: Randy Thom, Tom Johnson, Dennis Sands and William B. Kaplan, The Polar Express

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Paul N.J. Ottosson, Spider-Man 2
Potential Spoiler: Michael Silvers and Randy Thom, The Incredibles
Dark Horse: Randy Thom and Dennis Leonard, The Polar Express
Who I’m Rooting For: Randy Thom and Dennis Leonard, The Polar Express

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara and John Frazier, Spider-Man 2
Potential Spoiler: John Nelson, Andrew R. Jones, Erik Nash and Joe Letteri, I, Robot
Dark Horse: Roger Guyett, Tim Burke, John Richardson and Bill George, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Who I’m Rooting For: John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara and John Frazier, Spider-Man 2

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Ryan
Potential Spoiler: Gopher Broke
Dark Horse: Lorenzo
Who I’m Rooting For: Ryan (of the three I’ve seen)

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: Little Terrorist
Potential Spoiler: Everything in This Country Must
Dark Horse: 7:35 in the Morning
Who I’m Rooting For: 7:35 in the Morning

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: Autism Is a World
Potential Spoiler: Sister Rose’s Passion
Dark Horse: The Children of Leningradsky
Who I’m Rooting For: Haven’t seen any of these

The Big Ones

Oscar prognosticators seem to say this every year, but I truly believe that this is one of the closest races in recent memory (except for the lead acting categories). In almost every race, there are at least two very strong contenders, either of which I could easily predict for the win. I’ve never been this unsure about my picks (there have been years where I’ve purposefully gone out on a limb to call a long shot, but I at least knew who the favorite was – not this year).
No two categories are more distressing for me at the moment than the two big ones – Best Picture and Best Directing. And in recent years, the two have not gone hand-in-hand as much as in the past.

This year, the Best Picture race comes down to intellect vs. emotion, which isn’t to say that Million Dollar Baby doesn’t appeal to people on an intellectual basis or that The Aviator is without a heart. But it seems that most of The Aviator’s supporters “appreciate” its artistry and technical prowess whereas Million dollar Baby’s fans are “touched” by its humanity and heart wrenching drama. Both methods of impacting the audience have worked for Best Picture winners in the past (it’s hard to judge which has worked better). On paper, The Aviator seems to have everything going for it according to trends and rules (everything except that pesky DGA Award). But predicting the Academy Awards is about more than science – after all, it is The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. So we can’t forget the “Arts” part of the equation. There’s an intangible feeling surrounding Million Dollar Baby that has inspired most Oscar prognosticators to shift it from potential spoiler to the frontrunner.

This is something unique in my decade-or-so-long history of following the Awards.

Many have been comparing this year’s race to 1998 when Shakespeare in Love defeated Saving Private Ryan (analogizing Baby to Shakespeare and Aviator to Private Ryan), but there are few notable problems with that theory. For starters, I’m not sure that Shakespeare ever achieved the frontrunner status that Baby now has. Many (including myself) were saying that it had a very good shot at upsetting Private Ryan, but few were actually willing to go on the record and predict it to win (as I recall – memory can be a fuzzy thing). Also, Shakespeare had more total nominations than Private Ryan, which is not true of Baby. Shakespeare had a no-name director (well, it was a famous name, but for a different man) with no significant body of work who lost the DGA Award to the other guy – again, not true of Baby. And speaking of precursors, those went a little different back in 1998: Both Shakespeare and Private Ryan won Golden Globes for Best Picture, which was impossible for Baby and Aviator to repeat this year since they were up against year other in the Drama category; of the nine guild awards, Private Ryan won four and Shakespeare won two – this year, Aviator’s won three while Baby has only picked up one (I’m only counting SAG’s ensemble award, which Shakespeare won and Baby did not). The one important similarity between Shakespeare and Baby is that both had that intangible, in the air feeling of support working for them and building late-season momentum.

There are a few other similar races I could go into where there was a tenuous frontrunner – 1991, 1995 and 2002 – but each seems distinct enough from this year’s match-up that it hardly seems worth it (I wasn’t really on the Oscar beat in 1991, but one major difference is that The Silence of the Lambs swept the Writers, Directors and Producers Guilds; in 1995, Braveheart’s two chief competitors – Apollo 13 and Sense and Sensibility – failed to garner Best Directing nods, effectively crushing their once promising prospects); and in 2002, Chicago was sitting pretty, pretty much up until The Pianist’s three shocking “top-tier” wins).

I do however keep reflecting on 2000, when many were tipping Gladiator to win, but few could actually believe that it was going to be an Academy Award-winning Best Picture. The last minute DGA upset by Ang Lee threw some prognosticators (including yours truly) into a tizzy, I think because we were reaching for some sign that Gladiator couldn’t possibly win (I really enjoyed Gladiator a lot – but come on…). There certainly wasn’t much critical love for Gladiator (a lot of like, but not “like” like) and honestly, I don’t know of anybody outside of the teenage boy set who felt a passionate love for the film.

In my analogy, The Aviator is Gladiator (they even sound alike!) – despite Gladiator’s front-runner status. They’re both the well-respected, big-budgeted, lots-of-nomination-getting films that run somewhat cool on the passion scale (though The Aviator has fared better, I believe). The problem with 2000 as a template for this year is that there was no Million Dollar Baby back then. Chocolat was an amusing trifle, nothing more (despite what Miramax’ marketing would have you believe). Erin Brockovich and Traffic are ruled out, not just because of the Soderbergh split, but because even though both films have their lovers (myself included), I think that love was mostly felt for the brilliant technique whereas Baby’s love is for the characters and the story. Finally there’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (which I had pegged for a win, even though I knew it was a long shot). It had a lot of what Baby has – emotion, the second highest number of nominations, passionate supporters and a DGA win – but it had one thing more: subtitles. And those outweighed everything else.

Still, if Gladiator can win Best Picture, surely The Aviator can. And so, I have to go against the grain and predict The Aviator to win Best Picture. Though you should know, I have a tendency to pick the underdog (pretty much every year except 1998, when I let my love of Spielberg get in the way), so the safest bet for your Oscar pool is probably Million Dollar Baby.

As for Best Directing, I could go through a whole bunch of statistics and historical precedents, but in this category, it really does come down to a gut feeling. Despite the DGA, despite the general consensus in the press that Eastwood is a beloved figure in Hollywood who’s due for (another!) win, despite prevailing predictions to the contrary – I’ve gotta go with Scorsese. Yeah, I thought he’d win in 2002, too, but there was a lot of controversy and backlash then, and besides that, nobody liked Gangs of New York and many hated it.

And I just don’t buy this talk that Eastwood and Scorsese are (directing) legends of equal caliber. Putting personal feelings aside (I’m not a huge fan of either, though I respect both), how many generally accepted “classics” has Eastwood directed? I count one (it’s too early to judge how Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby will be considered in the future). Scorsese’s got three that outrank #98 Unforgiven on the AFI’s Top 100 list (Raging Bull, Taxi Driver and Goodfellas), and some would classify Mean Streets and The Last Temptation of Christ as modern classics.

What really irks me is that I keep reading that Eastwood is arguably one of our greatest living directors. Two back-to-back well-received films does not transform someone into the greatest. Are these people forgetting everything he did between Unforgiven and Mystic River (let me remind them: Blood Work, Space Cowboys, True Crime, Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, Absolute Power, The Bridges of Madison County and A Perfect World)? Sure, Scorsese’s had a rough decade or so too (since Goodfellas, he’s made Cape Fear, The Age of Innocence, Casino, Kundun, Bringing Out the Dead and Gangs of New York, as well as a few documentaries), but I think that most of his failures were at least trying for something loftier than Blood Work, and even they have their ardent supporters and garnered some Oscar attention (not including Gangs, those films earned a cumulative twelve nominations to Eastwood’s grand total of one). Okay, this rant is over.

Anyway, I just have a feeling that Scorsese will win out. I feel much better about that prediction than my Best Picture prediction. I’d recommend going for the split in your Oscar pool, with Million Dollar Baby for Best Picture and Scorsese for Best Directing. But don’t blame me if you lose.