Ridiculously Late Oscar Predictions

Best Director

Locks: Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Martin Scorsese (The Aviator), Alexander Payne (Sideways)

Again, it’ll be a shock if any one of these is left out.

Guesses: Michael Mann (Collateral), Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

As I stated back in September, there have only been three times in history when all five Best Picture nominees have been nominated for Best Directing (the last time was in 1981). So there’s always some discrepancy between the Picture contenders and the Directing contenders (usually there’s just one director left out, though occasionally there are two).

And since 1970, all five DGA nominees have only been nominated for Best Directing three times. So odds are against both Marc Forster and Taylor Hackford making it. Although most Oscar prognosticators are calling Forster, I just have this feeling that like Gary Ross last year, he’ll get left on the cutting room floor. Of the four “sure thing” Pictures, Finding Neverland is the least sure, and Forster is the least established director. Plus, there’s nothing particularly flashy about the film, which can be a handicap in this category.

When it comes to Michael Moore, I still think that they’d rather reward the movie/message than the man.

Taylor Hackford has a legitimate shot, though if he’s left out (as I’m predicting that he will be), it won’t be the first time he’s been nominated for a DGA Award without converting it into an Oscar nomination.

So I had four Michael/Michel/Mikes gunning for these two Guess slots. Ultimately I decided to go for the real longshots – Mann and Gondry. Although Collateral has been underrepresented this award season (outside of Jamie Foxx and cinematography), the Directors’ branch of the Academy frequently goes for surprises, and Mann is well respected.

And don’t forget that this is the branch that nominated Spike Jonze for Being John Malkovich, so I just have a feeling that even though he hasn’t been praised as much as Jonze, Gondry could sneak in here.

Pinch Hitters: Mike Nichols (Closer), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Marc Forster (Finding Neverland), Michael Moore (Fahrenheit 9/11), Mel Gibson (The Passion of the Christ)

For a long time I clung to Nichols, but Dave Karger made a good point in Entertainment Weekly about how the veteran vote will be more than taken care of by Eastwood and Scorsese. Still, I think he has more than a decent shot.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Locks: Jamie Foxx (Ray), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator), Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)

I’m not one hundred percent certain about Depp (he’s definitely less of a lock than Foxx and DiCaprio), but I think he’ll be carried along by Neverland’s momentum. Even DiCaprio isn’t a sure thing in this very competitive race (remember he failed to clinch nominations for much-buzzed-about performances in Titanic and Catch Me If You Can), but his passion for The Aviator is a big plus, as is the range of his performance. Meanwhile, the only mystery about Foxx comes in the Supporting race.

Guesses: Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Paul Giamatti (Sideways)

Giamatti is a big question mark, and I’ve only put him in the top five at the last minute because of SAG support and the enormity of Sideways love this year. Plus, it never hurts to have been overlooked for a well-regarded performance the previous year. Again, I’m not totally convinced that he’s in (even though he sure acted like he would be on SNL last weekend – even while “jokingly” grumbling the steamroller that is Jamie Foxx).

Pinch Hitters: Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Liam Neeson (Kinsey), Jeff Bridges (The Door in the Floor), Kevin Bacon (The Woodsman)

I thought Bardem was a definite, but buzz hasn’t been huge, and as an enormous proponent of his in 2000, I must say that I found his Sea Inside role a tad underwhelming, especially considering his circumstances. His SAG lockout doesn’t necessarily mean anything (he wasn’t nominated for Before Night Falls either), but a nomination would’ve helped. He’s neck and neck with Giamatti for spot number five.

And Eastwood also didn’t get much pre-Oscar recognition for his acting in Unforgiven, but that didn’t stop him from making the cut, though I don’t think the field was as competitive as it is this year, and the Actors may feel that he’ll get his due as a Producer/Director/Composer.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Locks: Hillary Swank (Million Dollar Baby), Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake), Annette Bening (Being Julia), Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

We’ll get into my uncertainty about current front-runner Swank being able to win again after she’s nominated.

Guess: Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

Let the record show that I had her in my top five predictions way back in September (of course I also had Sideways at number 18 on my list of likely Best Picture finalists). She’s got momentum off of a lot of people predicting her and then that SAG nom. I feel pretty confident about her.

Pinch Hitters: Um… I got nothing.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Locks: Thomas Haden Church (Sideways), Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby), Clive Owen (Closer)

Guesses: Freddie Highmore (Finding Neverland), Jamie Foxx (Collateral)

I’ve been very reticent to predict a nomination for Foxx in this category, and if there were any other legitimate contender, they’d be in here. The problem is, only nine actors have ever double-dipped (eight if you don’t count Barry Fitzgerald who was nominated for the same role in two categories). Of those eight, only the first double-dipper, Fay Bainter in 1938, and Jessica Lange in 1982 achieved that feat without having ever been nominated previously. While both of Foxx’ performances this year have been critically-hailed, let’s not forget that before this year he was perhaps best known for Booty Call and “Wanda” on In Living Color (which isn’t a knock on him – as a friend of The Dish recently observed, “Isn’t it great that we live in a world where the dumb guy from Wings and a washed-up frequently topless B-movie star can be nominated for Oscars?” I’d add to that list the stars of The Next Karate Kid, 21 Jump Street and Growing Pains, as well as “Pig Vomit” from Private Parts as “Only in America” comebacks). More accomplished stars than Foxx have failed to clench the double. In the same year that Al Pacino was double nominated, Jack Nicholson had been double nominated at the Golden Globes (like Foxx), yet only managed one Oscar nod. The same goes for Meryl Streep in 2002 and Julianne Moore in 1999. So yeah, in a more competitive year, I’d say that Foxx doesn’t have the credentials to get double nominated so early in his career (especially when he’s already guaranteed a statue).

Pinch Hitters: Peter Sarsgaard (Kinsey), James Garner (The Notebook), David Carradine (Kill Bill, Vol. 2)

For some reason, even though he had a much more demanding role in Kinsey than he did in Shattered Glass, Sarsgaard just hasn’t gotten the buzz (or the precursor awards) this year, though again, he may sneak in as payback for last year.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Locks: Virginia Madsen (Sideways), Natalie Portman (Closer), Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), Laura Linney (Kinsey)

Guess: Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)

This could be the film’s consolation prize if it doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination.

Pinch Hitters: Cloris Leachman (Spanglish), Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland), Meryl Streep (The Manchurian Candidate)

Leachman got a surprise SAG nom after Spanglish had been all but left for dead. Don’t count her out yet.

Winslet hasn’t gotten as much attention for Neverland as she has for her Sunshine performance, but she certainly has the bona fides for a double dip after three previous nominations. And she does something at the end of the movie that is a big awards boost.

I don’t really think Streep has a chance, but apparently Paramount’s been pushing hard (what else are they gonna push?), and ad campaigns have gotten unlikely noms nominated in the past.

And the rest…

Unlike Chris Rock, I don’t think the below-the-line (and writing) categories are any less important than the others… but sadly it’s getting late and I have to wake up in four hours, so they’re not getting much coverage tonight.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
2. The Aviator
3. Kinsey
4. Hotel Rwanda
5. The Incredibles

With Vera Drake as a possible replacement.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Sideways
2. Million Dollar Baby
3. Finding Neverland
4. Closer
5. The Door in the Floor

With Mean Girls as a possible replacement.

Best Animated Feature
1. The Incredibles
2. The Polar Express
3. Shrek 2

Best Foreign Language Film
1. The Sea Inside
2. The Chorus
3. House of Flying Daggers
4. Tae Guk Gi
5. Nightwatch

Best Documentary Feature
1. Born into Brothels
2. Twist of Faith
3. In the Realms of the Unreal
4. The Story of Weeping Camel
5. Touching the Void

Best Art Direction
1. The Aviator
2. The Phantom of the Opera
3. Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
4. The Terminal
5. A Very Long Engagement

Best Visual Effects
1. Spider-Man 2
2. The Day After Tomorrow
3. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow

Best Costume Design
1. A Very Long Engagement
2. The Phantom of the Opera
3. The Aviator
4. Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
5. Vanity Fair

Best Makeup
1. Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
2. Hellboy
3. The Aviator

Best Editing
1. The Aviator
2. Million Dollar Baby
3. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
4. Ray
5. Fahrenheit 9/11

Best Cinematography
1. The Aviator
2. The Passion of The Christ
3. Collateral
4. A Very Long Engagement
5. Ray

Best Sound
1. The Aviator
2. Spider-Man 2
3. The Incredibles
4. The Phantom of the Opera
5. Ray

Best Sound Editing
1. The Incredibles
2. Spider-Man 2
3. The Polar Express

Best Original Score
1. Sideways
2. Finding Neverland
3. The Incredibles
4. Million Dollar Baby
5. The Motorcycle Diaries

Best Original Song
1. “Old Habits Die Hard” (Alfie)
2. “Believe” (The Polar Express)
3. “Learn to be Lonely” (The Phantom of the Opera)
4. “Accidentally in Love” (Shrek 2)
5. “Peter’s Song” (Finding Neverland)
Nobody’s talking about the Randy Newman song from Meet the Fockers, but never count Newman out.

And don’t forget that the Songwriters’ branch isn’t as square as their rep. They gave Eminem the Oscar instead of Bono and they nominated “Blame Canada,” even when the Globes ignored South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut. So don’t give up on hearing Robin Williams belt out “I’m so Ronery,” “Freedom Isn’t Free” or “Everyone Has AIDS” or whichever song Trey Parker and Paramount are pushing. Personally, I’d love to hear the Michael Bay-baiting “Pearl Harbor Sucked” sung by Faith Hill with cutaways to Ben Affleck, though I suppose Debbie Allen could do a kick ass medley with “Learn to be Lonely” and “I’m so Ronery.”

That’s all for now… Happy Oscar Morning (hopefully)!